Environment

PART ONE: “China’s Environmental Crisis,” by Kenneth Lieberthal

Kenneth Lieberthal, visiting fellow at The Brookings Institution, spoke last night about “China’s Environmental Crisis and Prospects for the Future” at the The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) of Johns Hopkins University in Washington, D.C.

Bottom line? “China’s environment is in bad shape,” he says. On Friday, Brookings will publish Lieberthal’s most recent report on the environment, available online for free.

His conclusions from yesterday’s presentation include the following points (his words, not mine):

• China’s environmental crisis is wide-ranging, complex, and consequential
• It threatens the pace of economic growth
• Addressing it effectively will be expensive, and will require changes in the political economy
• Challenges will evolve over time
• The environment may well be the most consequential factor in shaping the country’s future

AIR QUALITY

• The amount of suspended particulate matter per cubic meter in China far exceeds the maximum that the World Health Organization says is compatible with reasonable levels of human health.

• Acid rain covers 30% of China’s land area.

Why the dirty air?

Just look at China’s energy profile: coal is king.  It’s cheap and abundant (though dwindling) and, needless to say, contributes to global climate change.

Furthermore, the fastest growing sectors of the Chinese economy are also the most energy intensive and highly polluting, such as the production of cement, aluminum, steel and petrochemicals.

Then there’s the alarming rate of urbanization. Cities grow at about 15 million people every year, requiring the massive construction of infrastructure. The problem is, China is not particularly energy efficient: the country uses 15% of global energy but contributes to only 5.5% of global GDP.

WATER

The shortage of unusable water is the “most intractable problem” in China, Lieberthal says.

China is facing a critical water shortage. And not only that, but the water that is available is un-drinkable, thanks to years of ecosystem degradation and neglect. “Use it and die,” Lieberthal says, pointing out that 45% of surface water in China is considered “totally unusable” for any purpose, and only 3% is potable. (The World Bank recently made recommendations on how to address China’s water scarcity issues.)

There’s a Powerpoint presentation about this crisis by water expert Christine Boyle, posted on the Green Leap Forward. She presents many of the same startling conclusions that Lieberthal shared.

• Water scarcity is concentrated in northern China, where the population density is highest.

• Per capita water availability is drastically below global standards. In the U.S. and Europe, Lieberthal says, there’s an average of 8,000 cubic meters of water per person per year. But in the North China Plain, where 40% of the population lives, there are only 1,100 cubic meters per person per year. Keep in mind: It’s already considered a “serious water shortage” to have less than 2,000 cubic meters per year, and the minimum level to sustain society is 1,000 cubic meters. China’s water situation is bordering on the bare minimum!

• Rivers are drying up. Lieberthal says China’s water table has decreased by three feet per year since the 1960s.

• The urban water supply is unsustainable. Of China’s 650 cities, more than 400 are considered “water short” and 300 are “acutely water short,” Lieberthal says, necessitating plans for water rationing.

COST OF POLLUTION

Pollution is expensive, in monetary, health and socio-political terms.

Lieberthal reminds us that pollution costs 10% of China’s GDP per year. (See China Daily.)

According to his 2007 article, “Scorched Earth: Will Environmental Risks in China Overwhelm its Possibilities?“, co-written by Elizabeth Economy, Chinese media have reported the following economic losses:

• up to $36 billion in lost industrial output from a lack of water to run factories
• $13 billion from the degradation and health impact of acid rain
• $6 billion from the spread of desert regions

And then there are public health costs: death from air pollution, disease from dirty drinking water, and the forced migration and social unrest caused by environmental conditions that cannot support human habitation.

Depressed, yet? Worried? Alarmed? Numb?

Read PART TWO of this blog post to learn about Lieberthal’s “Prospects for the Future.”

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